2023 Author: Bryan Walter | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-05-21 22:24
Β-D-glucoparinose formula. Glucose is one of the metabolic indicators that are being evaluated in a new study.
Dutch scientists have identified 14 metabolic indicators by which it is possible to predict death with high accuracy over the next five and ten years, regardless of age, but taking into account gender. To do this, they analyzed data on more than 44 thousand people, of whom five thousand died during the study. Among the indicators predicting death, scientists identified the level of glucose, fats, lactic acid, albumin and others, and the prediction accuracy for a separate sample of people in a five-year perspective was 83.7 percent. The article was published in Nature Communications.
The goal of most medical research conducted on large populations is to accurately determine the risk factors for the development of any disease or premature death. The conclusions of such studies are sometimes not the most obvious: for example, the risk of premature death is higher even with the consumption of small portions of red meat, and telomere length, as it turned out, predicts death worse than age and physical activity.
Of course, objective metrics - that is, biomarkers that can be measured in a laboratory setting - are best for predicting death. One of these indicators is the metabolic profile, that is, the individual levels of metabolism of various substances in the body. Scientists led by Joris Deelen of Leiden University Medical Center decided to reduce the number of metabolic metrics relevant for such a prediction to a minimum.
To do this, they used data on 44,168 participants in 12 population studies aged 18 to 109 years: in addition to various demographic data and information about lifestyle, data on 226 metabolic indicators taken in blood tests were also available to them. Of all the participants during the study (from 2, 7 to 16, 7 years), 5512 died.
In total, scientists were able to identify 136 biomarkers that were statistically significantly associated with mortality in all samples. After taking into account the side variables (the influence of gender, age, cause of death, the interaction of some metabolic parameters with each other and others), 14 independent markers remained. Among them - the content of chylomicrons (a class of lipoproteins that are formed in the small intestine), small particles of high density lipoprotein (HDL, the so-called "good" cholesterol), glucose, lactic acid, albumin (simple water-soluble proteins) and others.
If we divide the considered indicators into conditionally “useful” and “harmful”, then an increased concentration of HDL, albumin, histidine and leucine was associated with a reduced risk of premature death, and relatively high levels of glucose, lactic acid and isoleucine were associated with an increased one.
A model in which these biomarkers are associated with the risk of premature death was tested on a separate sample of 7603 people, of whom 1213 died after the start of the study. It turned out that accounting for 14 metabolic indicators, taking into account the sex of a person, can predict death within the next five years with an accuracy of 83.7 percent, and within ten years - with an accuracy of 83. For comparison, a prediction model based on information about the image life and health (common risk factors in medical research), gave an accuracy of 77, 2 and 79 percent, respectively.
A limitation of the application of medical research results is that not all indicators can be measured objectively: when it comes to studying food and bad habits, physical activity and sleep, researchers often have to rely on data provided by the research participants themselves. Accounting for objective biomarkers of the work of the human body, and in particular - indicators of metabolism, is not only more accurate (as shown by a new study), but also a relatively simple way to predict mortality. Scientists also pointed out that individual biomarkers can be attributed not only to an increased risk of death, but also to identify a specific reason - for this, however, their model should be studied further.
When it comes to controlling the factors affecting metabolic parameters, it is necessary to monitor diet, alcohol consumption, physical activity and sleep. A recent study found that sleep deprivation on the weekends may not help cure metabolic dysfunction if you get sleep deprived.