2023 Author: Bryan Walter | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-05-21 22:24
Scientists from George Mason University have concluded that the threat of drones to aviation is somewhat exaggerated. The researchers' work is available on the university website.
In a number of countries, the threat of drones to airspace is a major concern of governments. For example, in Russia, Britain and America, the owners of drones are required to register them, and a number of restrictions are imposed on the use of radio-controlled aircraft, including a ban on flying near planes, helicopters and airports.
However, new work by scientists shows that the real likelihood of a drone colliding with an airplane or helicopter is not so great. In their study, university staff collected data on bird collisions with aircraft in the United States over the past 20 years and, based on them, tried to calculate the likelihood of an accident involving a drone.
During the period from 1990 to 2014, researchers counted 160 thousand collisions of birds with aircraft, and of these, only 15 thousand led to serious consequences. About 80 percent of accidents were caused by medium to large birds, while strikes with small birds caused damage in 3 percent of cases. In all, only 12 collisions in almost 25 years ended in disaster.
Based on the data obtained, scientists calculated the probability of collision of a drone weighing up to two kilograms with an aircraft, which would cause damage - it was 5x10−5, which is approximately equivalent to one accident per 1.87 million years of drone flight in the air. According to researchers, only one case in 187 million years should end in a large-scale catastrophe. Moreover, it is worth noting that at the moment in the United States there has not been a single real collision.
Of course, the analysis carried out by scientists has a number of limitations. Birds and multicopters are made of different materials and it is likely that drones will do more damage than animals. In addition, the researchers studied the collision of a single bird, rather than a flock of birds with an aircraft, since drones tend to fly alone. However, sometimes drones fly in swarms and this also needs to be taken into account. It is also worth noting that there are special devices that scare away birds at airports, and therefore the likelihood of an accident due to this is somewhat reduced, and the study also does not take into account the fact that, most likely, there will be an increase in sales of radio-controlled aircraft and their number in the air will rise.
In general, it should be borne in mind that legal restrictions are associated not only with the lives of passengers, but also with economic risks. Annual damage to air transport caused by birds is estimated at US $ 625 million.
