2023 Author: Bryan Walter | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-05-21 22:24
Stephen Hawking offered global warming deniers a free ticket to Venus so that they could experience for themselves what the Earth will be like as a result of the uncontrolled rise in greenhouse gas emissions. The N + 1 editors decided to ask climatologists if the temperature on Earth could really rise to 400 degrees Celsius and what real threats climate change poses to us.
Images from the surface of Venus taken by Soviet lander
The film “Stephen Hawking’s Favorite Places” is currently being broadcasted on the Internet, where the famous physicist makes a virtual journey through the Universe. In the second episode of the film, Hawking visits Venus and reveals that it is similar to Earth in many ways. It has the same size, it has an atmosphere, it is only a little closer to the Sun.
However, atmospheric pressure on the planet's surface is 90 times higher than on Earth - enough to crush a submarine, and the average temperature is over 400 degrees Celsius. Here's what can happen if greenhouse gases get out of control, says Hawking, quoted by CNet. The physicist fears that our own planet could become a second Venus. “The next time you meet a climate change denier, offer him a trip to Venus, I’ll pay for the ticket,” the scientist says.
A scene from the film Stephen Hawking's Favorite Places
Leading researcher at the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, climatologist Andrey Kiselev in an interview with N + 1 said that climate models do not predict the transformation of the Earth into a twin of Venus in the coming centuries, but even those climatic changes that are observed now can create many problems.
“Hawking’s words, from my point of view, are overkill. In order to speak reasonably, it is necessary to calculate such a scenario on the climate model, when an uncontrolled growth of greenhouse gases is laid, and see how the situation will change. Of course, in the next 100 years there will be no such changes, and only fortune-tellers can say what will happen in the fourth millennium: the earth's climate is a chaotic system, after a certain period of time it becomes impossible to predict its state in principle.
In the 1990s, calculations using climate models showed that by 2100, if population and economic growth and, accordingly, the growth of greenhouse gas emissions continue at the same pace, the average temperature will rise by 4-6 degrees, some will get 10 degrees … Today, with the advent of more accurate models, it is believed that the two-degree milestone will be overcome and by 2100 the growth may be 3.1 degrees. There are predictions up to 2300, but they do not make much sense, this is purely academic interest, and with a huge amount of uncertainties."
But even today, climate change poses many challenges, says the scientist.
“Climate change affects everyone, and we see the manifestation of these changes every day. Our weather regime is changing, natural disasters are becoming more frequent - from heat waves and sudden cold snaps to droughts, floods and hurricanes. The number of these extreme events is increasing, and this is confirmed by meteorological statistics.
Even if the Paris Climate Agreements are fully implemented by all participating countries (and as we know, US President Donald Trump has already announced that his country will not comply with them), still his main goal is to limit warming to two degrees from the pre-industrial period - will not be fulfilled, the average global temperature will rise more strongly, and this is fraught with changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation. As the pole warms up faster than mid-latitudes, the temperature difference between the pole and the equator decreases, and circulation changes. All this together makes the very unpleasant prospect that awaits us. Therefore, undoubtedly, it is necessary to take measures to curb the emission of greenhouse gases."
Alexey Kokorin, PhD in Physics and Mathematics, Director of the Climate and Energy Program at WWF Russia says that in the literal sense "Hawking's scenario" cannot be realized.
“This is still impossible, since the greenhouse effect is a spectral phenomenon, any gas molecule absorbs radiation in certain ranges of the spectrum. Why are we not afraid that a large amount of water vapor will enter the atmosphere? Because all absorption bands of water vapor are almost full. Therefore, climatologists pay such attention to the so-called small gas constituents, for example, fluorine-containing gases synthesized by man. The point is that they can absorb where they do not absorb either CO2 or water vapor”.
Kokorin recalled that in the history of the Earth, at the time of the dinosaurs, the temperature of the planet was 10-12 degrees higher than today. This temperature difference is primarily due to the fact that Antarctica was not at the pole, there were no glaciers, which means there was no reflective spot; there was no Greenland glacier either.
Scenarios of increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
If we take the worst-case scenario, which is described in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is designated RCP 8.5, then the average global temperature will rise by about 5 degrees.
“If we take this scenario for Russia, it turns out that by 2100 the fire rate of forests in Siberia, especially in Southern Siberia, will be so high that it will not be clear what to do with them - maybe they need to be cut down in advance and planted in their place. less fire-prone hardwoods. Huge areas of Asia and Africa will be lost to agriculture. The amount of precipitation there will be such that it will be impossible to grow plants there for a reasonable price. Hundreds of thousands, millions of people will have to be relocated,”says Kokorin.
However, he notes, recent data show that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have already reached a plateau, although not yet declining. “If this plateau is continued further, then it gives us not five degrees, but three degrees. This radically changes the matter. This is of course damage, and not small, it is very serious, but it is much less damage than five degrees,”the expert said.
But even in this case, some small island states face the threat of destruction - even a small rise in ocean level can completely flood their territory. And large countries see no significant risk for themselves. “That is why they are not ready to radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” says Kokorin.
“Against this background, Hawking’s statement is, on the one hand, correct, you need to attract attention. But on the other hand, we must understand that people can perceive it as a movie thriller and will not react,”the expert said.
